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Crown Fire Probability

Derived from WildEST fire behavior modeling

Published by
Pyrologix
Last updated on
August 27, 2025
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License

CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 DEED

Theme

Wildfire

Scale

CONUS

Update
Frequency

Temporal Coverage

Start Date: 
End Date: 

Geographic Coverage

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About

This dataset maps the probability of crown fire across the contiguous United States under a full range of historical weather conditions, as modeled by WildEST. Values range from 0–1, representing the likelihood that a given location will experience either group torching (mid- to high-grade passive crown fire) or sustained canopy spread (active crown fire) if a wildfire occurs. Probabilities are weighted by weather frequency and fire-carrying ability.

The dataset available for download below corresponds to the findings presented in the publication, " which details the methodology, analysis, and key insights.

For a deeper dive, access the full publication HERE, or read a summary on Vibrant Planet's blog.

Selected Data Tiles: 

Download

Crown Fire Probability

Where are crown fires most likely? This dataset highlights the probability of canopy-driven fire across the U.S. under a full range of weather conditions.

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Direct Download (Full File) - HTTPS Link

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What’s inside

Direct Access

Get hands-on access to this dataset using interactive notebooks. Choose between the Google Colab notebook for quick exploration in your browser or access the hosted Jupyter Notebooks via Binder or GitHub for more advanced workflows.

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Click the button to the left to launch an interactive notebook directly in your browser. This pre-configured Colab notebook provides a quick and easy way to explore, visualize, and analyze the data—no setup required.

GitHub hosted Jupyter Notebooks

Flexible access for advanced workflows

‍Access the full collection of Jupyter Notebooks hosted on GitHub. These notebooks can be used on your local machine or via cloud platforms like Binder or Google Colaboratory, providing flexibility for more advanced customizations.

Metadata

Publisher:
Pyrologix
Contact Name:
Chris Moran, PhD
Contact Email:
chris.moran@vibrantplanet.net
License:
CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 DEED
DOI:
doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/PXJZK
Access Level:
Public
Created:
Last Updated: