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Crown Fire Probability

Derived from WildEST fire behavior modeling

Published by
Pyrologix
Story Last updated on
September 1, 2025
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License

CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 DEED

CRS

NAD83 / Conus Albers (EPSG:5070)

Resolution

30
m (per pixel)

Theme

Wildfire

Scale

CONUS

Update
Frequency

Temporal Coverage

Start Date: 
End Date: 

Geographic Coverage

No items found.

About

This dataset maps the probability of crown fire across the contiguous United States under a full range of historical weather conditions, as modeled by WildEST. Values range from 0–1, representing the likelihood that a given location will experience either group torching (mid- to high-grade passive crown fire) or sustained canopy spread (active crown fire) if a wildfire occurs. Probabilities are weighted by weather frequency and fire-carrying ability.

The data is provided in 30 meters resolution in NAD83 / Conus Albers (EPSG:5070) and stored as Cloud Optimized GeoTIFF (COG) tiles. Each tile is 4096 × 4096 pixels, covering about ~123 × 123 km on the ground.

This tiling grid is aligned to , making it directly interoperable with those products.

To keep downloads efficient and analysis straightforward, the dataset is organized into a fixed tiling grid. This approach prioritizes optimal file sizes and regional coverage for analytical workflows. While the grid follows standard geospatial conventions, it is not pixel-aligned to USGS ARD or other standardized grids.

How to Get Started:

  1. Explore the Map: Zoom and pan to locate your area of interest. The tile grid outlines the spatial boundaries of the dataset.
  2. Select Your Tiles: Click one or more tiles to highlight them. Each tile corresponds to a geographic area you can download.
  3. Review & Adjust: Use the checkboxes in the selection list to confirm or deselect tiles.
  4. Download Your Data: Click the "Download Data" button to bundle your selected tiles into a single ZIP file.
A Few Things to Keep in Mind:
  • Download Limitations: For best performance, please select no more than 20 tiles per download. Larger selections may slow your browser or cause issues.
  • Need more coverage? No problem—just download in smaller batches. All tiles use the same folder structure, so you can easily merge them later in your GIS software for seamless regional analysis.
  • Working at larger scales? For very large areas, contact us to discuss alternative delivery options.

The dataset available for download below corresponds to the findings presented in the publication, " which details the methodology, analysis, and key insights.

For a deeper dive, access the full publication HERE, or read a summary on Vibrant Planet's blog.

Selected Data Tiles: 

Download

Crown Fire Probability

Where are crown fires most likely? This dataset highlights the probability of canopy-driven fire across the U.S. under a full range of weather conditions.

MB

Direct Download (Full File) - HTTPS Link

Use this link to download the entire file directly to your local storage through the browser. This method is ideal for quick and easy access but requires sufficient local storage and bandwidth for the full download.

What’s inside

Direct Access

Get hands-on access to this dataset using interactive notebooks. Choose between the Google Colab notebook for quick exploration in your browser or access the hosted Jupyter Notebooks via Binder or GitHub for more advanced workflows.

Direct access to the Google Collab notebook

Open and explore instantly

Click the button to the left to launch an interactive notebook directly in your browser. This pre-configured Colab notebook provides a quick and easy way to explore, visualize, and analyze the data—no setup required.

GitHub hosted Jupyter Notebooks

Flexible access for advanced workflows

‍Access the full collection of Jupyter Notebooks hosted on GitHub. These notebooks can be used on your local machine or via cloud platforms like Binder or Google Colaboratory, providing flexibility for more advanced customizations.

Metadata

Publisher:
Pyrologix
Contact Name:
Chris Moran, PhD
Contact Email:
chris.moran@vibrantplanet.net
License:
CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 DEED
DOI:
doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/PXJZK
Access Level:
Public
Created:
June 25, 2025
Last Updated:
June 25, 2025