Wildfire Ignition Probability (Western & Southeastern U.S.)
Spatial ignition probability surfaces for the Western and Southeastern U.S., estimating the likelihood of human-caused, lightning-caused, and composite wildfire ignitions at 120 m resolution.
About this dataset
This dataset provides spatially explicit ignition probability estimates for two major fire-prone regions of the United States: the Western U.S. and the Southeastern U.S. For each region, separate models estimate the likelihood of wildfire ignition from human-caused sources, natural (lightning) sources, and a composite that combines both.
The ignition surfaces are derived from Random Forest models tailored for probabilistic predictions and trained on a multi-year fire occurrence database (2006–2020) along with topography, climate, vegetation, and human development variables. Predictions are scaled to match observed ignition rates, producing annual ignition probabilities in real-world units at 120-meter resolution. Non-burnable areas are excluded.
These datasets support quantitative wildfire risk assessment, prevention and mitigation planning, and broader decision-making around land use, preparedness, and resource allocation in both regions.
What’s included in this dataset
How to interpret this layer
Western U.S. Ignition Probability Datasets
• Human Ignition Probability – Indicates the likelihood of human-caused wildfire ignition in the Western U.S., modeled using anthropogenic predictors (development, roads, population density, and related factors).
• Natural Ignition Probability – Indicates the likelihood of lightning-caused wildfire ignition in the Western U.S., modeled using lightning climatology, climate, fuels, and other biophysical variables.
• Composite Ignition Probability – Represents the combined likelihood of wildfire ignition from both human and natural causes in the Western U.S.
Southeastern U.S. Ignition Probability Datasets
• Human Ignition Probability – Indicates the likelihood of human-caused wildfire ignition in the Southeastern U.S., modeled using regional anthropogenic patterns and historical fire occurrences.
• Natural Ignition Probability – Indicates the likelihood of lightning-caused wildfire ignition in the Southeastern U.S. using lightning and climate predictors tailored to the region.
• Composite Ignition Probability – Represents the combined likelihood of wildfire ignition from both human and natural causes in the Southeastern U.S.
All products are provided as Cloud-Optimized GeoTIFFs (COGs) at 120-meter resolution in NAD83 / Conus Albers (EPSG:5070), with probability values calibrated to observed annual ignition rates from 2006–2020.
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Wildfire Ignition Probability (Western & Southeastern U.S.)
Spatial ignition probability surfaces for the Western and Southeastern U.S., estimating the likelihood of human-caused, lightning-caused, and composite wildfire ignitions at 120 m resolution.
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Human Ignition Probability (Western U.S.)
Indicates the likelihood of human-caused wildfire ignition across the Western United States, modeled using anthropogenic predictors and historical fire occurrence patterns.
Natural Ignition Probability (Western U.S.)
Indicates the likelihood of naturally-caused wildfire ignition across the Western United States, modeled using lightning climatology, climate variables, fuel properties, and biophysical predictors.
Composite Ignition Probability (Western U.S.)
Represents the combined likelihood of wildfire ignition from both human and natural sources across the Western United States.
Human Ignition Probability (Southeastern U.S.)
Indicates the likelihood of human-caused wildfire ignition across the Southeastern United States, modeled using region-specific anthropogenic factors.
Natural Ignition Probability (Southeastern U.S.)
Indicates the likelihood of naturally-caused wildfire ignition across the Southeastern United States using lightning and climate predictors.
Composite Ignition Probability (Southeastern U.S.)
Represents the combined likelihood of wildfire ignition from both human and natural sources in the Southeastern United States.
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Explore scenario data downloads
Use the filters, then click a group to reveal individual downloads.
Human Ignition Probability (Southeastern U.S.)
Indicates the likelihood of human-caused wildfire ignition across the Southeastern United States, modeled using region-specific anthropogenic factors.
Natural Ignition Probability (Southeastern U.S.)
Indicates the likelihood of naturally-caused wildfire ignition across the Southeastern United States using lightning and climate predictors.
Composite Ignition Probability (Southeastern U.S.)
Represents the combined likelihood of wildfire ignition from both human and natural sources in the Southeastern United States.
Human Ignition Probability (Western U.S.)
Indicates the likelihood of human-caused wildfire ignition across the Western United States, modeled using anthropogenic predictors and historical fire occurrence patterns.
Natural Ignition Probability (Western U.S.)
Indicates the likelihood of naturally-caused wildfire ignition across the Western United States, modeled using lightning climatology, climate variables, fuel properties, and biophysical predictors.
Composite Ignition Probability (Western U.S.)
Represents the combined likelihood of wildfire ignition from both human and natural sources across the Western United States.
Direct Access
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Licensing & Attribution
Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution–NonCommercial–ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0).
You may share and adapt this dataset for noncommercial purposes with attribution under the same license.
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© 2025 Pyrologix, a Vibrant Planet company. Distributed by Vibrant Planet Data Commons. Licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
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