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Wildfire Ignition Probability

Composite - Southeastern Region

Published by
Pyrologix
Story Last updated on
March 6, 2025
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License

CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 DEED

CRS

(EPSG:)

Resolution

m (per pixel)

Theme

Wildfire

Scale

Regional

Update
Frequency

Unknown

Temporal Coverage

Start Date: 
End Date: 

Geographic Coverage

Texas
Oklahoma
Arkansas
Louisiana
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
South Carolina
Florida
North Carolina
Virginia
Kentucky
Tennessee

About

Wildfire ignition probability data provides spatially explicit estimates of the likelihood that a wildfire will start in a given location. The resulting datasets, specific to the Western and Southeastern U.S. regions, offer geospatial estimates of wildfire ignition probabilities, distinguishing between human-caused and natural (lightning) ignitions, as well as providing combined probabilities for both. The authors employ Random Forest machine learning, customized for probabilistic predictions, to model ignition likelihood based on spatial trends in observed fire occurrences, topographic features, climatic factors, vegetation characteristics, and human development patterns. The resulting datasets are scaled to recent observed ignition rates (e.g. 2006-2020 fire occurrence database) and have a spatial resolution of 120 meters. These datasets are a valuable resource for wildfire risk assessments (QWRA), risk mitigation planning, and decision support in land management, policy development, and other fire-related contexts.

The data is provided in resolution in (EPSG:) and stored as GeoTIFF tiles. Each tile is × pixels, covering about ~ × km on the ground.

This tiling grid is aligned to , making it directly interoperable with those products.

To keep downloads efficient and analysis straightforward, the dataset is organized into a fixed tiling grid. This approach prioritizes optimal file sizes and regional coverage for analytical workflows. While the grid follows standard geospatial conventions, it is not pixel-aligned to USGS ARD or other standardized grids.

How to Get Started:

  1. Explore the Map: Zoom and pan to locate your area of interest. The tile grid outlines the spatial boundaries of the dataset.
  2. Select Your Tiles: Click one or more tiles to highlight them. Each tile corresponds to a geographic area you can download.
  3. Review & Adjust: Use the checkboxes in the selection list to confirm or deselect tiles.
  4. Download Your Data: Click the "Download Data" button to bundle your selected tiles into a single ZIP file.
A Few Things to Keep in Mind:
  • Download Limitations: For best performance, please select no more than 20 tiles per download. Larger selections may slow your browser or cause issues.
  • Need more coverage? No problem—just download in smaller batches. All tiles use the same folder structure, so you can easily merge them later in your GIS software for seamless regional analysis.
  • Working at larger scales? For very large areas, contact us to discuss alternative delivery options.

The dataset available for download below corresponds to the findings presented in the publication, " which details the methodology, analysis, and key insights.

For a deeper dive, access the full publication HERE, or read a summary on Vibrant Planet's blog.

Selected Data Tiles: 

Download

Wildfire Ignition Probability

Combined likelihood of wildfire ignitions from human and natural (lightning) causes in southeastern ecosystems.

709.6
MB

Direct Download (Full File) - HTTPS Link

Use this link to download the entire file directly to your local storage through the browser. This method is ideal for quick and easy access but requires sufficient local storage and bandwidth for the full download.

What’s inside

Direct Access

Get hands-on access to this dataset using interactive notebooks. Choose between the Google Colab notebook for quick exploration in your browser or access the hosted Jupyter Notebooks via Binder or GitHub for more advanced workflows.

Direct access to the Google Collab notebook

Open and explore instantly

Click the button to the left to launch an interactive notebook directly in your browser. This pre-configured Colab notebook provides a quick and easy way to explore, visualize, and analyze the data—no setup required.

GitHub hosted Jupyter Notebooks

Flexible access for advanced workflows

‍Access the full collection of Jupyter Notebooks hosted on GitHub. These notebooks can be used on your local machine or via cloud platforms like Binder or Google Colaboratory, providing flexibility for more advanced customizations.

Metadata

Publisher:
Pyrologix
Contact Name:
Chris Moran, PhD
Contact Email:
chris.moran@vibrantplanet.net
License:
CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 DEED
DOI:
doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/PXJZK
Access Level:
Public
Created:
January 30, 2024
Last Updated:
January 30, 2024